Short read

Zug, Switzerland I May 16, 2023 –  Cloudy weather with some sun lies ahead for the global crypto market in the next 24 hours, according to ATTMO, a weather-inspired crypto AI forecasting tool. This implies a slightly bearish market with downside risk for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, as the risk of US debt default and regulatory uncertainties in the US weighs on general crypto sentiment.

The weather is however tropical – very bullish with some upside potential – for Binance Coin in the coming 24 hours. 

Over a one-week horizon, the forecasts remain unchanged for Bitcoin, while Ethereum has a slight upside potential. Dogecoin faces stormy weather ahead, which signals a drawn-out bear market with an imminent market rebound possible.

Long read

Continued US regulatory uncertainty weighs on cryptos

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has urged that the judges overseeing Coinbase’s request to force the SEC to answer questions about how its securities regulations actually apply to the US cryptocurrency market be denied. 

“Neither the securities laws nor the Administrative Procedure Act imposes on the SEC an obligation to issue the broad new regulations regarding ‘digital assets’ Coinbase has requested,” a court filing shows.

This matter as the US is the world’s largest crypto market and Coinbase, the country’s largest crypto exchange. 

“The SEC told the court that rulemaking (resulting in crypto regulatory clarity) may take years and they’re in no rush,” Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal tweeted, adding “The SEC also said that the public statements by Chair Gensler are not formal guidance or policy statements from the SEC and the public cannot rely on them as such.”

”Overall, the SEC’s response reinforces Coinbase’s longstanding concern that our industry does not have clarity on what the SEC may consider being within or outside its jurisdiction at any time, and it is likely to continue changing its mind along the way.”

Some investors stay away from crypto assets given the SEC’s arbitrary clampdown on the market and the lack of clear guidelines.

G7, however, calls for clear crypto regulations

Over the weekend, the finance ministers of the G7 countries called for “effective monitoring, regulation and oversight (of crypto) are critical to addressing financial stability and integrity risks posed by crypto-asset activities and markets, while supporting responsible innovation.” The forum is awaiting the recommendations of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) set to be released by July. 

“We commit to implementing effective regulatory and supervisory frameworks for crypto-asset activities and markets as well as stablecoin arrangements, which are consistent with the FSB’s recommendations and standards and guidelines established by SSBs, [standard-setting bodies],” the ministers said in a joint press release. 

The price of Bitcoin fell 1.5 percent over the past 24 hours to 27,085 US dollars, a two-month low, while that of Ethereum dropped 1 percent. Among smaller currencies, Binance decreased 1 percent and XRP shed 0.7 percent. 

Crypto trading volumes remain low, reaching 31 billion US dollars over the last 24 hours, far below the volumes traded in 2020-2022.

Investors eye upcoming debt-ceiling talks

This afternoon, investors will focus on the talks held between US President Joe Biden and the speaker of the House of Representatives on the looming debt ceiling deadline. The US has raised or suspended its debt limit almost 80 times since the 60s. 

The US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has on several occasions warned that a failure to raise the debt ceiling may result in the US defaulting on its debt in as little as two weeks, on June 1. 

A default would not only affect the US government’s credit rating, making it more expensive for the federal government to borrow money. It would above all create panic in the financial markets, which in turn would produce a global recession.

DISCLAIMER
ATTMO, a weather-inspired AI tool, makes cryptocurrency predictions. It also forecasts longer-term cryptocurrency trends. These forecasts are not trading advice; they are only decision support tools. They do not include information that is specific to the user; in particular they do not account for their personal risk appetite or market assessment.